Noble has once again taken the initiative in the Gloucester-Macarthur deal, by offering a all cash deal to Gloucester shareholder in the event that the deal fell through.
This is even after Macarthur has rejected a Peabody last minute attempt to scuttle the deal. However, Peabody has now up the ante with a A$14 bid for Macarthur, showing its determination to scuttle the Noble deal or at least to further postpone the April 12 EGM by Macarthur.
By offering an all cash deal to Gloucester, I believe Noble is making it very clear to Macarthur that it is in no mood to renegotiate the deal, and is prepare to go in alone and go head on with Macarthur if the deal did not go through, and a warning shot to Macarthur and anyone else that it will be even more expensive in the future, should they attempt to buy out Gloucester next time.
I putting my bet that the deal will still go ahead (to create one of the largest coal company in the world) that will benefit Noble. Noting that for Peabody to succeed, it will have to get the nod of Citic, Posco and Mittal - the major shareholders of Macarthur. Citic by the way also own 15% of Noble.
Will still look to buy on any weakness related to this deal.
This blog is a selections of my investment views to my client. If you find it useful or have additional information to share, please do let me know. These blogs are my personal views and is not meant to solicit any sales or investment on any securities or investment. I may have vested interest in some of the counters or investment products, hence please invest at your own risk. As usual invest in what you understand and do your own homework.
ML is a licensed stockbroker with one of Asia Leading Stock Broker firm. To contact him, please email: icewolfmike@gmail.com
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